Yesterday was the 11th anniversary of about 40 state legislators gathering near the Tennessee Capitol to unveil the Tennessee Natural Marriage Defense Act, a bill designed to challenge the 2015 Supreme Court Obergefell v Hodges ruling that struck down state bans on marriage by same-sex couples.

Brief Legislative History:  That bill failed to pass, though Tennessee has faced some kind of anti-marriage equality bill every legislative session since the Obergefell ruling. Most of those bills have not been as ambitious as the Tennessee Natural Marriage Defense Act in that they would not have prevented county clerks in Tennessee from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Most recently in the 114th General Assembly two bills were introduced and failed. The first was introduced in 2025 as a Covenant marriage option for man/woman couples. It was later amended to affect the gender wording of all marriage licenses. The second was a bill introduced in 2026 that said that the Obergefell ruling does not apply to the private sector and that private actors are free to ignore the ruling.

Why has it been difficult to pass an anti-marriage equality bill?  While polling cannot prevent the introduction of bills, it may be one factor among many in hurting the chances of legislation designed to undo the freedom to marry. About 65% of Americans support marriage equality, according to a 2026 Gallup poll. Notably that number is down from 71% in 2023. PRRI data from 2025 indicates that support in Tennessee is around 55%.  The federal factor also comes into play. In 2022 the federal Respect for Marriage Act passed and requires states to recognize each other’s marriages. The Congress and the President have not shown much interest in revisiting that law. The Supreme Court has also declined to take up recent challenges to the Obergefell ruling. In Tennessee, the House and Senate differ in their interest in these bills with the House showing a great deal more interest than the Senate. 

The past is no guarantee:  While anti-marriage equality bills have struggled, past results do not always predict future outcomes. It is within the realm of possibility that an anti-marriage equality bill of full or limited scope could pass the Tennessee General Assembly in the coming years. One factor for the 115th General Assembly that convenes in January will certainly be the November 3 state legislative races, though because of past Gerrymandering, many (not all) of those races are heavily weighted to the parties already holding those seats. One protective factor that may give some legislators pause is the August local government election. Out LGBTQ candidates were elected to the Knox, Putnam, and Rutherford County Commissions for the first time. A new out member of the Montgomery County Commission was also elected. Overall the partisan balance of power shifted significantly in the following local governments:  Montgomery, Knox, Hamilton, and Rutherford, which are counties that send large delegations to the General Assembly. As the state legislators from those counties digest the results of the local elections, it could cause them to think twice about supporting anti-LGBTQ measures. 

Looking ahead:  While it is not possible to stop the filing of anti-marriage equality bills in the Legislature, it is also true that it is possible to put up a strong fight. If such bills are introduced in 2027/28, then the community will rely on a similar mixture of tools that we have used in the past. Those include professional lobbying, committee testimony, media engagement, constituent contact with legislators through in-person meetings, email, and phone calls, and related tactics. In addition, legal organizations serving the LGBTQ community stand ready to file legal challenges to any anti-marriage equality bills that might become law, just as they were ready to do so in 2026. If the Supreme Court's hesitancy to reconsider Obergefell persists and Congress leaves the Respect for Marriage Act alone, those legal challenges stand a good chance of being successful in voiding prospective anti-marriage equality laws in Tennessee.